The next 30 years of solar energy is set to be a game-changer. According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), solar energy could provide 45% of the electricity in the United States by 2050 if the energy system is fully decarbonized. With technology costs continuing to decline, the growth of photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power is expected to be rapid. In their Solar Futures Study, NREL brings together industry experts, government representatives, non-governmental organizations, and universities to deliver a detailed analysis of solar energy’s future in the United States.
Three Visions of the Solar Future
The Solar Futures Study explores three scenarios to understand the potential future of solar energy. The first is a baseline case using current policies and trends. The second scenario envisions a 95% decarbonized electric power system by 2035 and full decarbonization by 2050. The third scenario considers not just decarbonization but also electrification, where the electric grid powers the electrification of buildings, transportation, and industry. These scenarios provide insights into how solar energy can evolve and integrate into various sectors, including transportation, agriculture, and industry.
Cross-Disciplinary Approach and Detailed Findings
The Solar Futures Study is a comprehensive examination of solar energy’s potential, spanning over 300 pages. To analyze solar energy development and integration comprehensively, NREL engaged experts from various domains. The study’s technical reports delve deeper into specific technology areas and sectors, leveraging NREL’s power grid modeling package, ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System), to simulate power plant addition and dispatch on U.S. electric grids. These reports provide detailed information about the underlying data and tools used in the study.
Untapped Potential of Solar in Buildings
Solar energy’s integration into buildings presents significant opportunities for decarbonization. NREL’s analysis emphasizes two key aspects: deploying solar systems on buildings and optimizing energy use and storage within buildings. Currently, only about 3% of solar-viable rooftops in the United States host PV systems. Properly operated demand-side services, such as energy shifting and storage, can significantly reduce the cost of decarbonizing the electric grid by up to 22% by 2050. NREL’s technical report explores the potential for rooftop solar deployments and provides summaries of pathways and policies for buildings to contribute to demand-side efficiency.
Affordable and Accessible Solar for All
Ensuring equitable access to solar energy is crucial for maximizing its economic and resilience benefits. NREL’s study assesses the barriers, solutions, and on-site adoption potential for affordable and accessible solar energy. The report highlights the missed opportunity for solar adoption in low-income households, renter-occupied and multifamily buildings, and community solar deployments. It proposes funding programs, policies, and provisions already in use throughout the United States to address the “split-incentive problem” and increase solar adoption among underserved communities.
Vehicle-Solar Synergy
The future of solar energy is closely intertwined with electric transportation. The Solar Futures Study reveals that solar energy has the potential to power about 14% of transportation end uses by 2050. Solar PV is a natural fit for electric vehicle (EV) charging due to their shared use of direct-current electricity, eliminating conversion losses. The study explores various vehicle-solar synergies, such as coordinating vehicle charging with solar availability, deploying solar at parking canopies and structures, and utilizing EV batteries for second-life storage applications. It also examines emerging technologies like hydrogen vehicle coordination with solar-powered electrolyzers.
An Adaptable Toolkit for Energy Scenario Analysis
NREL’s Solar Futures Study showcases the laboratory’s capabilities for comprehensive energy scenario analysis. Their diverse and validated toolkit allows them to conduct in-depth analysis across various energy technologies and scenarios. The study emphasizes the role of computational models, such as the Interconnections Seam Study and Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study, in understanding and designing technologically diverse, cost-effective, and clean power systems. NREL’s research aims to create power systems that are resilient, equitable, and tailored to the specific needs of different regions.
To read the full reports and learn more about the Solar Futures Study, visit the News Explorer Today website.
FAQs
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What is the Solar Futures Study?
The Solar Futures Study is an in-depth analysis conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to understand the potential future of solar energy in the United States. It explores different scenarios and their implications for solar energy integration across various sectors. -
How much electricity could solar energy provide in the United States by 2050?
According to the study, if the energy system is fully decarbonized, solar energy could provide 45% of the electricity in the United States by 2050. -
What are some key findings of the Solar Futures Study?
The study highlights the untapped potential of solar energy in buildings, the need for affordable and accessible solar energy for all communities, the synergies between solar energy and electric transportation, and the importance of comprehensive energy scenario analysis.
Conclusion
The Solar Futures Study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) provides valuable insights into the future of solar energy in the United States. Through detailed analysis and collaboration with experts across sectors, the study explores different scenarios and their implications for solar energy integration. With solar energy projected to play a significant role in the decarbonization of the electric grid, this study paves the way for a solar-powered future that is affordable, accessible, and sustainable.